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2016 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: How to Weather the Storm

A few years ago, the global economy sank into the Great Recession: the deepest and most pervasive downturn since the Great Depression of the 1920s and ’30s. Less than a decade later, a lot of events already point towards another global recession. Is the world tumbling into an economic crisis in 2016?

With 10 European Countries, Brazil and Russia already in recession, Saudi Arabia announcing an austerity budget and plan to sell a stake in its state-owned oil company Aramco, oil price per barrel falling from $115 a barrel in August 2014 to $33 a barrel, the World is definitely warming up for another nose dive.

Unfortunately, the Nigerian economy is heavily dependent on the oil sector, which, accounts for more than 90 % of the country’s exports, 25% of the Gross Domestic Products and 80% of the Governments total revenues.

This has a lot of implications on the Nigerian economy, from exchange rate volatility, to increase in unemployment rate, savings stagnation due to high recurrent expenditure and so much more.

Consequently, it is very important to make smart business decisions in order to survive a downturn and more importantly stay relevant and profitable.

See below these steps by Forbes?

1. Manage profitability

Most companies have a relatively narrow margin for error. A 10% decline in revenue could wipe out the entire bottom line of your company. Having a contingency plan to produce marginal, short-term profit despite a drop in revenues can make all the difference.

Consider doing the following:

• Develop forecasts based on optimistic, realistic and worst-case revenue scenarios.

• Formulate contingency plans. Make sure your top managers are on board with the plans, and are ready to act quickly if revenues decline.

• Agree with your management team on early warning signals, such as a shrinking backlog, a downturn in customer-market indices, or a worsening sales pipeline.

• Be willing to adjust discretionary spending at more frequent intervals; for example, quarterly, or even on a rolling basis.

• Be ready to keep bankers and investors appropriately informed in case of a downturn and to communicate the actions you’re ready to take to limit the damage.

2. Identify and maintain your strengths—and your best customers

Identify the strengths that have enabled your success to date, and those that will be important in the future. Which capabilities and skills are most critical? What distinguishes your ability to serve customers effectively?

Identify your highest-margin customers, and understand what you are doing right for them. Develop a game plan, in the event of a downturn, to protect and build on the strengths that have allowed you to be indispensable to them.

In the event of a dip in business, rather than cutting costs across the board, be ready to shift resources to retain these high-margin customers.

Continue to be creative in how you can add value for your customers without increasing your costs. Example: a professional services firm adds regular briefings to client executives to monetize its intellectual capital.

3. Determine what you can stop doing

Companies that create enduring value typically excel at discontinuing what no longer adds value. Be ready to make changes in cost structure that will least damage your strengths and will hone your value proposition down to what customers really value.

Comb through your cost structure to create a contingency plan for what you would cut. Identify what’s inefficient; what’s nice to have but dispensable; what’s there because of history, inertia, or wishful thinking; what may have worked in the past but doesn’t anymore; what isn’t creating value as it used to.

Realize the challenges you would face in cutting costs. Most organizations aren’t adept at taking costs out quickly as revenues decline and margins suffer. Even your most hard-headed managers will try to protect their own people first.

As your company has grown, your operations have probably become more complex. Be ready to take a knife to any complexity that isn’t compliance-required or value-adding. Consider outsourcing nonstrategic company functions such as human resources, accounting, and even finance.

4. Manage liquidity as hard as profitability

A downturn might force you to deal not only with negative growth but also with liquidity constraints. Trying to maintain liquidity on a smaller revenue base can be crippling.

You would need a plan to turn over every balance sheet dollar faster to contribute to working capital. You’ll need plans to:

• Maximize cash flow by narrowing the timing between sales and outlays for costs you incur in

• Collect from customers faster. Consider offering discounts for paying promptly or require deposits from customers.

• Take advantage of increased supplier willingness to share risk and to provide favorable terms.

• Monitor your receivables against your payables and reduce your Cash Conversion Cycle days (time it takes for money to come in from customers against the days when your supplier payments are due).

5. Be ready to shrink to survive

The list of things a CEO needs to do to plan to survive a downturn is long and can seem daunting. You would need to avoid disassembling what has made you successful while accepting the necessity of shrinking it for the near-term. Managing through the crisis may require some skills that have been rusting in your managerial tool case.

In the event of a downturn, you’ll no longer be insulated by growth. Disciplined decision making will be essential. You’ll need to lead with the right proportions of cost-conscious frugality and bold innovation.

Hopefully 2016 will be a banner year for your company. But just in case it isn’t, invest some time now to plan how you will survive a downturn.

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